Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
